DFC Conference: Mapping China’s Influence

An evident ambition characterizes China’s foreign policy positioning to become the number one global power, said Milica Pejanović-Đurišić, opening the conference of the Digital Forensic Center.

This positioning is based on the idea of China as an economically advanced, culturally and technologically highly developed and internationally respected society said Pejanović Đurišić. She added that China is expanding its influence through Belt and Road Initiative projects.

Essentially, these are attempts to reshape the current world order, based on the concept of liberal democracy, in a direction adapted to China’s national interests and strategic goals, said Pejanović-Đurišić

Pejanović Đurišić stated that the war in Ukraine tested the strength and limits of the Chinese-Russian partnership. It has proven to be particularly effective in the Western Balkans, said Pejanović-Đurišić. As she said, apart from the economic one, China is trying to strengthen its presence in Europe through political and cultural cooperation with the Balkan countries.

Chargé d’affaires at the US Embassy, Chris Karber, also spoke at the conference. He pointed out that China is the only country with the intention to change the international order and increase the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so.

Karber said China is present in the region and Montenegro through significant infrastructure projects. Chinese companies are directly or indirectly involved in some of the most important infrastructure projects in Montenegro, Karber said. He said that Montenegro is proving to be a dedicated NATO ally.

And as Montenegro is looking for foreign investments, we must remember that the open climate for investments, economic vulnerability to external shocks, significant debt to China, bring significant risks, Karber said.

The study’s findings were presented by DFC analysts Milan Jovanović and Marko Banović. Banović pointed out that China has three political goals: sovereignty and territorial integrity, economic development, and international status and image. He added that he recognized China for its economic influence but that other soft power institutions such as diplomacy, media, and cultural and educational institutions should not be neglected.

Banović said that relations between China and the US are burdened by the issues of Taiwan, the division of territory in the South China Sea, and human rights and that the coronavirus pandemic has further complicated the relationship between the two countries. When it comes to China’s relationship with the EU, he said that China has turned from a strategic partner of the EU into a systemic rival trying to take over primacy in Europe.

According to him, the Balkan Peninsula is of great importance for China and the realization of its strategic goals, and China keeps its focus on the countries of the Western Balkans.

Banović highlighted the cooperation between Serbia and China in all areas, saying that China has political and media support in Serbia, which it lacks to a certain extent in other countries of the region.

He said that in the last decade, at least 61 projects in various stages of completion by or in cooperation with Chinese actors have been identified in Serbia, the value of which is at least 18.7 billion euros.

Along with Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina is the country where China has made the most significant economic and political influence in the Western Balkans, Banović pointed out. He added that the political and economic connection of the Republic of Srpska China is logical, given that the political situation in Serbia is directly spilling over to that entity.

Milan Jovanović pointed out that the Montenegrin public perceives China as a powerful but benevolent world power. For the purposes of the study, DFC conducted monitoring of the Montenegrin media, which showed that 53 percent of the articles were neutral, that the media mostly took over articles about China, and that the majority were written about the coronavirus, geopolitics, the economy, and the highway.

He pointed out that China’s involvement in projects in Montenegro began in 2010. A secret label protects many documents related to the planning and construction of the highway, and even after many years, the public does not have a complete picture of that project, said Jovanović.

He said that the Center for Global Development analyzed all Chinese projects and mapped the eight countries most threatened by the Chinese presence. Montenegro is supported by countries like Laos, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan, said Jovanovic.

As he said, the share of capital participation from countries with authoritarian, hybrid regimes has increased in the past seven or eight years. There is an obvious decline in investments from democratic and Western countries, Jovanović said.

We can see that the continued use of Chinese funds may make Montenegro no longer attractive to renowned foreign investors, said Jovanović.

Jovanović pointed out that, when it comes to Montenegro, the absence of engagement could lead to strengthening the anti-Western narrative. He added that they believe that the increased presence of the European Union (EU) in the Western Balkans would be a message to all third parties trying to divert Montenegro and other region countries from their path.

Jovanović concluded that it was necessary to provide additional support to journalists and the media and that the government, like all other state bodies of Montenegro, should assess the inflow of foreign capital with more sensitivity.

You can download the study Mapping the Impact of China: Case Study Montenegro at the LINK.